I believe this category is very competitive and almost anything could win. Victor likely won't need 25% of the vote, actually believe there is a slight chance "I Lost My Body" can prevail at 25-1+ odds. It is the only adult themed film here and is apparently very unique/creative in its storytelling. Seems to invoke passionate support from a decent amount who watch it...of course therein lies its biggest obstacle.
If anybody wants any thoughts on a category just let me know, brief rundown on the top awards but somewhat meaningless as no real bets to recommend.
Best Film : Almost all "experts" see this as 1917 v Parasite, personally think OUATIH has an outside chance as well. 1917 has won the bigger precursor awards lending itself to more predictions for it, but most seem to concede it will be close. Honestly as of now no great value to be had, if you can get Parasite around 3-1 then I'd put a small bet down.
Director : Mendes strong favorite, these technical achievement type movies have been doing well in recent times. Won the DGA (Directors Guild Award) which is a very strong precursor. Suppose its conceivable if there is groundswell of support for Parasite Bong Joon Ho could win.
Acting categories are all pretty much locked up. Phoenix the strongest, then Pitt, Zellweger and Dern. Though even Dern I'd rate around 90%, if there is an upset Johansson would likely win.
